Impact of potential change in climate and atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide on pasture and animal production in New
Zealand
R.J. Martin, C.J. Korte, D.G. McCall, D.B. Baird, P.C.D. Newton,
N.D. Barlow
MAF Technology, P.O. Box 24, Lincoln, New Zealand
Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production.
1991, 51: 25-40
A mechanistic model was used to measure the impact of changes in
climate (temperature, rainfall and solar radiation) and a 75% increase
in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on pasture and animal
production on eight representative New Zealand lowland farming systems.
The climate changes increased annual pasture dry matter production per
hectare by 10-30%, assuming no changes in pasture composition. A 75%
increase in CO2 concentration increased pasture production by around
40%. Together, climate change and increased CO2 concentration increased
yields by 50-77%. In all cases, the seasonal distribution of pasture
production was not greatly affected. Both climate change and increased
CO2 concentration individually increased annual milk production per
hectare by around 24%, lamb meat and beef by around 30% and wool by
around 22%, under the constant farm management systems selected. The
increases in production were mainly due to increases in stocking rate
resulting from the increased pasture production, but increased
conservation and feeding out of hay were required. The model predicted
an increase in lamb growth rates. Milk, meat and wool production was
higher under climate change than under increased CO2 concentration in
Southland, but the opposite was true in northern New Zealand. The
combined effect of climate change and increased CO2 concentration was
greater, with potential increases over the two scenarios averaging 52%
for milk, 57% for lamb and beef and 46% for wool.
Keywords: NZSAPAB;
Climate change; carbon dioxide; greenhouse effect; dairy; sheep;
beef; pasture; temperature; rainfall
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Last Updated 25-01-1997
